Risk Scenario Analysis: Dealing with Risk in Capital Budgeting

Another way to evaluate risk of the project is to undertake scenario analysis.

Scenario analysis focus on developing few alternative scenarios and evaluating variability between returns, which can be measured by net present value (NPV).

For example, we can generate 3 scenarios (optimistic, most likely and pessimistic) and than find NPVs for each of the scenarios. When we know net present values for each scenario, we can find the range.

The range here is found by taking NPV of optimistic outcome less NPV of pessimistic outcome, as shown below:

range (1) = NPV of optimistic outcome – NPV of pessimistic outcome

Alternatively, the range is found by taking annual cash inflow from optimistic outcome and subtracting annual cash inflow from pessimistic outcome, as shown below:

range (2) = annual cash inflow from optimistic outcome – annual cash inflow from pessimistic outcome

Range shows us variability between returns.

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